Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas has entered its 100th day, and tensions are now escalating on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon as well. Over the weekend, several incidents resulted in casualties on both sides of the border, raising concerns of another front opening up in Israel’s conflicts.
Infiltration Attempt from Lebanon Results in Casualties
On Saturday, an infiltration attempt into northern Israel by a squad of armed gunmen from Lebanon resulted in casualties on both sides. According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Israeli troops patrolling the border spotted the infiltrators crossing the Blue Line, the UN-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon, and a firefight ensued.
Four militants were killed, while five Israeli soldiers were injured. The IDF reported that the militants were equipped with rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, and explosives. They had attempted to infiltrate Israel in an area between the towns of Zar’it and Shtula.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu placed blame for the attack squarely on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, saying “Hezbollah is continuing its aggression against Israeli civilians.” However, Hezbollah has not claimed responsibility for the infiltration attempt at this point.
Israel Retaliates with Airstrikes in Lebanon
In response to the infiltration attempt, Israel retaliated by launching strikes against targets in southern Lebanon associated with Hezbollah.
The IDF said its jets struck “observation posts and infrastructure used for intelligence gathering by Hezbollah,” with additional ground forces firing artillery at southern Lebanon.
“Fighter planes and helicopters struck several Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese villages of Marwahin, Iqqat al-Kharoub, and Jabal Abd al-al. Direct hits were identified,” the IDF said, warning Lebanese civilians to stay away from areas used by Hezbollah militants.
The Lebanese military reported Israeli airstrikes on rural areas near the Israeli border but claimed no casualties resulted. However, Lebanon’s state news agency reported Israeli strikes hit a base used by a small Palestinian faction in Lebanon, killing a Palestinian man and injuring several others. This could signal a widening conflict beyond Hezbollah as other militant groups get drawn in.
Missile Attack from Lebanon Kills Israeli Civilians
Tensions escalated further on Sunday when rockets fired from Lebanon struck northern Israel, killing two Israeli civilians – a woman and her 5-year-old son.
The attack marked the first time rockets from Lebanon have killed Israeli civilians since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. The location of the missile strike was close to the border near Kiryat Shmona.
Israel retaliated swiftly, with IDF jets and attack helicopters launching strikes on rocket launching sites in southern Lebanon. An IDF source said it was the most intense Israeli bombardment of Lebanon since the 2006 war.
| Fatality Count from Weekend Border Clashes |
|---|
| 4 militants killed infiltrating from Lebanon |
| 5 Israeli soldiers injured |
| 2 Israeli civilians killed by rocket attack |
| 1 Palestinian militant killed by Israeli airstrike in Lebanon |
Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the rocket attack through one of its front groups, seemingly confirming Israeli accusations of Hezbollah aggression.
“The Islamic Resistance – the military wing of Hezbollah – bombarded the vicinity of Israeli military sites near the Palestinian occupied territories,” Hezbollah’s statement said. This signaled the incidents have the potential to spiral out of control into a larger conflict.
International Calls for Restraint
The exchanges of fire drew international calls for calm and restraint from all sides, warning against allowing the incidents to spark a repeat of the brutal month-long war fought between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the Hezbollah missile attack that killed Israeli civilians but also said “Israelis and Lebanese alike deserve to live in peace and security.”
Even Hamas, engaged in ongoing clashes with Israel in Gaza, reportedly told Hezbollah the timing was poor right now for escalating hostilities with Israel on a second front.
The U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon also called for maximum restraint, saying “This is a very dangerous situation and escalation is un contained at present on both sides of Blue Line.”
With tensions at a boiling point, Lebanon’s Prime Minister called for the U.S., France and international bodies to intervene diplomatically to prevent further escalation.
Looming Specter of Wider War
Ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollahthreatening to unleash another devastating war has the potential to further destabilize the entire region.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has made several speeches in recent weeks warning of retaliation for Israeli strikes that have killed Hezbollah fighters in Syria. Many experts see Hezbollah itching for an excuse to attack Israel.
At the same time, Israel likely wants to send a strong message and impose a new deterrence against Hezbollah aggression ahead of parliamentary elections in April. With Prime Minister Netanyahu already facing criticism for the length of the Gaza conflict, he risks losing further political ground if unable able to contain Hezbollah.
Some analysts said Hezbollah may have acted not expecting Israeli civilians to be killed, intending to send a warning rather than trigger full blown war. However, now that missiles from Lebanon have killed Israeli citizens, Israel may have no choice but to retaliate harshly.
The specter now looms of coordinated missile barrages from both Lebanon and Gaza aimed at population centers in Israel, should hostilities continue to widen. The international community is scrambling to find ways to dial back tensions and prevent another major war between Israel and Hezbollah that could drag in regional powers and further destabilization.
Path Forward Highly Uncertain
For now, both sides have gone back on heightened alert across northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Israel will likely continue surgical strikes looking for reprisals against Hezbollah targets. Hezbollah may be considering how far it wants to escalate things in light of Israel’s fierce response.
Most concerning is that these events seem to point to further escalation being inevitable unless there is forceful international intervention. UN peacekeepers so far have been ineffective at addressing rocket fire and border clashes.
Without some kind of ceasefire or truce soon, there remains an ever present danger of rapid and unpredictable escalation that could trigger an all out war between Israel and Hezbollah engulfing Lebanon and northern Israel. The path forward remains highly uncertain and precarious by all accounts.
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