The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, made an urgent call this week for countries to negotiate a global pandemic treaty in order to prepare for future pandemics, including the ominous possibility of “Disease X.” This hypothetical, currently unknown pathogen could potentially be even more deadly and destabilizing than COVID-19.
What is Disease X?
“Disease X” is a placeholder name adopted by WHO to signify a hypothetical, currently unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic or pandemic. As explained by WHO, Disease X “represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease.”
The concept stresses the need to be prepared for unexpected epidemics and pandemics caused by new diseases that we have not yet encountered. With growing population density, human expansion into new habitats, climate change, and other global trends, the risk for novel disease outbreaks is considerable.
Call for Global Unity and Preparedness
In a video address to the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos this past week, Ghebreyesus warned that the world remains unprepared for pandemics like COVID-19. He called for a pandemic treaty and the creation of a global pandemic fund to finance preparedness measures:
“The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the catastrophic consequences of a breakdown in global cooperation and leadership for pandemic preparedness and response…We do not yet have the systems in place around the world to prevent, detect and respond to pandemics in a highly coordinated fashion. The new instrument would aim to address those weaknesses.”
The WHO chief stressed that all countries must come together and transcend politics in order to create resilient health systems and effectively distribute vaccines, treatments, and PPE supplies across the globe during future outbreaks.
Ghebreyesus argued that global cooperation would not only save lives in the event of pandemics, but also provide economic benefits by preventing the enormous financial damages caused by uncontrolled disease spread.
Concerns Over Lack of Progress Since COVID-19
Public health experts at the Davos summit also voiced concerns that despite the devastation from COVID-19, the world has yet to implement many of the critical reforms needed to prevent similar catastrophes going forward:
| Reform | Status |
|---|---|
| Improved early warning systems | Insufficient progress |
| Bolstered local and national health systems | Uneven progress globally |
| More equitable access to vaccines and treatments | Ongoing inequities |
These deficiencies significantly raise the risks associated with Disease X. As stated by Dr. Jaouad Mahjour, WHO Assistant Director-General for Emergency Preparedness and International Health Regulations:
“We learned a lot of lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. But despite all this, only 30% of what we agreed to do has been implemented.”
Without major reforms and increased investment into pandemic preparedness, experts warn that Disease X could overwhelm countries and cause severe loss of life and societal disruption.
Simulations Point to Potential Damage from Disease X
The World Economic Forum recently conducted simulations modeling the potential impact of Disease X, revealing how an unknown, lethal, airborne pathogen could kill up to 270 million people worldwide. Participants highlighted major gaps globally in medical countermeasures, supply chains, communication channels, and healthcare capacity.
“Despite all the technological advances of the last decade, we saw nearly 6 million reported deaths from COVID-19, to say nothing of excess mortality and long-term disability arising from delayed testing, treatment and vaccination in marginalized communities,” noted one health expert involved with the simulations.
Lingering Unknowns Around Disease X
Much remains unclear about Disease X, including its exact origins, lethality, populations impacted, and how easily it might transmit between people. Scientists are working to develop flexible vaccine platforms using mRNA and other novel technologies that could facilitate rapid development of vaccines against newly emerging diseases. But many other preparedness gaps remain.
Ultimately, the specific characteristics of Disease X are less important than the measures taken to confront it, argues Ghebreyesus:
“The next pandemic could be more severe, more deadly, and have greater impacts, including social and economic turmoil. A new pandemic will come. The question is, will the world be ready when that happens?”
Only through unified efforts and robust investments into global public health systems can the world hope to meet this challenge. But achieving the necessary level of cooperation remains a complex uphill battle.
To err is human, but AI does it too. Whilst factual data is used in the production of these articles, the content is written entirely by AI. Double check any facts you intend to rely on with another source.
